Past this Pomp of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: An Indo-Russian Relationship That Has Frayed.

The diplomatic language and visuals from Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India spoke of a robust bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders shared a ride together, mirroring a familiar diplomatic style. In his comments, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "lodestar", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India during his 25-year tenure and his twentieth encounter with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Divide Separating Pageantry and Reality

Nevertheless, a clear divide persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this alliance. While Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international pressure. The two nations signed numerous memorandums of understanding in areas like migration, health, agriculture, naval cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, expected announcements on major military deals failed to happen. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.

A Relationship Losing Geopolitical Influence

This all indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical heft it previously did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed special trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both countries have attempted to preserve a semblance of this close tie through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the former significance as New Delhi has significantly deepened ties with the West.

Diversification and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its important links with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to broaden the relationship into other areas. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, designed to make their ties "more diversified, balanced and long-lasting". This involves improving market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers multiple strategically important fields – from space and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, especially among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a more reliable ally.

The key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement released during Putin's visit contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it ironically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the war have been limited.

Navigating the Dilemma: India's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This situation does not belie the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The country is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, after a comparable pact with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How can India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a major irritant in its relations with the Western bloc. However, should a peace deal is achieved, if it falls short of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will undoubtedly continue in Western governments.