Large Inflatable Objects from the Belarusian Side Trigger Chaos in the Baltic Nation. Smugglers or a Covert Warfare Tactic?

Whenever the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for issues.

That is when large aerial objects are launched across the border, with boxes of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the recent period, this illicit balloon traffic has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are certain they are confronting something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been employed by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to influence bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, military police patrol in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen after dark.

Patrols establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any company that can devise how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."