Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Initiative Represents a Gift to Putin

For a brief period, Trump seemed to embrace a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. After making threats of "significant consequences" last August in case Putin carried on hindering truce talks, he eventually enacted major sanctions on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in peril. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to view the war as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. But, Russia's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged region of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in status the currently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel the nation to give up the entire this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its military have been failed to capture in over a decade of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that constitute a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a open route to the capital if he subsequently decide to restart the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would make renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the proposal declares: "All extremist belief system and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community believe Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics vary from vague to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not